Gemba's Super Bowl Plays with analysis

[gemba]

I really hate to go against ACE this weekend but there are too many points out there. I have the line at NE -7.5 at Bodog. So........

1. DONT FORGET NE lost to Miami on Monday night. No matter how much money Vegas might have payed those guys to lose, there is no team out there that would lose a Monday night game of all things with home field on the line. With this loss to Miami, one must ask if the Eagles can present a defense like Miami did to make Brady look like a rookie. The answer to this is yes! Tom Brady is ranked number 15 as a passer when he is being rushed or hurried. Miami put a little pressure on him and his true colors showed up. Brady will throw two to three interceptions in this game. If Feeley can outperform Brady, McNabb can definitely do it.

2. The Eagles stopped the leagues number one rushing attack two weeks ago. If they can stop that, they can stop Dillon and this will lead to point number one. This also leads to the strength of the Eagles in their secondary. The entire secondary is filled with Pro Bowlers and they will shine for the big game. The play fake from Brady two weeks ago will not work when the Eagles stop the run and start to blitz.

3. I trust McNabb to not make the mistakes in this game. Brady will make more mistakes and the game will remain close.

4. When teams are expected to win Super Bowls and favored by more than a touchdown the dog always seems to come and bite.

5. T.O. has been the talk of the town for two weeks. He might look like he can play but it would be risky to go over the middle and be tackled. I see the Eagles going long to this guy in the first two series to establish a threat other then Westbrook. T.O. will have to be used early and only to long bombs and plays on the sideline to not be tackled. If he is tackled, they will twist that ankle on purpose and he will be gone. The Eagles can still win without out him, but a quick 7 from him is what they need.

After all of this being said I will take.....

Eagles +7.5 2100 to win 2000

Eagles +225 500 to win 1125

 

[ElIguana]

Nice analysis, Gemba. I'm sure you'll get good rebuttals from the NE backers, but I think you have valid points. I'm with you on the Pats loss to Miami. No, just because Miami beat NE, and Philly is better than NE, it doesn't equate to a Philly victory. But it does show that NE is beatable by a physical defense. (See also "Pittsburgh" on Halloween.)

I would also add #6. Andy Reid has been strategizing for this game for about 2 months. For the past 3 years, Reid has watched his team fold in the NFC championship game, likely due to injuries and fatigue. After Philly's dominating wins against Dallas (49-21), Washington (28-6), NYGiants (27-6), and Green Bay (47-7), they basically put it into cruise control against Washington (17-14) and Dallas (12-7), playing well enough to win conservatively but giving up the backdoor cover on "meaningless" TDs. Then they rested players and threw in the towel vs. St. Louis and Cincinnati before soundly beating Minnesota (27-16) and Atlanta (27-10), not "blowout" victories, but again playing conservatively once those games were put away.

All of this leads to a rested and mostly healthy Philly team who has paced themselves for this game. Belichick is a genius and will have NE ready, but don't sell Andy Reid or his 2 month chess-match short. There are lots of stats in NE's favor, but Philly is in many favorable statistical situations as well (Reid's record after bye week, etc.) GL Gemba.

 

[TotalRecall]

What a waste of good money. All the crap in Miami was a fluke that went down in the last few minutes. A bad call on Harrison(bad timing the call was ok) and a hungry Monday Night Football home crowd did more to jam the Pats than Feely did. That wont happen here.... Faulty logic will get you nothing. Brady is going to be in complete control of this one from beginning to end. The guy who will look like a rookie will be McNabb like the last time they played got him sacked what 7 or 8 times? Or did you forget that game as a fluke? Ace is correct. NE will score 30 something PHI may get 20 something if theyre able to get T.O. going... Cruise control you say? Thats just another way of saying they couldnt do their jobs. NE is never going into cruise control against anyone. They will take PHI for a ride they will never forget...

 

[TampaLuke]

Wait until Sunday to bet it. Bodog will only be trying to attract more Eagle action so you might get a more attractive price, -105 or maybe even. There will be a Patriot rush this weekend. If Bodog doesn't move it you will get better chances elsewhere. Either way you will do no worse than -110 so you have nothing to lose by waiting and maybe an extra 5 to 10 cents to lose by betting now.

Let me know if anyone thinks I am wrong. I am here to learn.

 

[TotalRecall]

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD width="74%" colSpan=2>NET YARDS PASSING</TD><TD width="13%">

247​

</TD><TD width="13%">

169​

</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="2%"></TD><TD width="72%">Completed - Attempted</TD><TD width="13%">

30-44​

</TD><TD width="13%">

20-48​

</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="2%"></TD><TD width="72%">Yards per Pass</TD><TD width="13%">

5.4​

</TD><TD width="13%">

3.1​

</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="2%"></TD><TD width="72%">Sacked - Yards Lost</TD><TD width="13%">

2-8​

</TD><TD width="13%">

7-42​

</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="2%"></TD><TD width="72%">Had Intercepted</TD><TD width="13%">

0​

</TD><TD width="13%">

2​

</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="74%" colSpan=2>PUNTS-AVERAGE</TD><TD width="13%">

10-38.9​

</TD><TD width="13%">

8-43.0​

</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="74%" colSpan=2>RETURN YARDAGE</TD><TD width="13%">

155​

</TD><TD width="13%">

152​

</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="2%"></TD><TD width="72%">Punt Returns - Yards</TD><TD width="13%">

5-47​

</TD><TD width="13%">

4-29​

</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="2%"></TD><TD width="72%">Kickoff Returns - Yards</TD><TD width="13%">

3-57​

</TD><TD width="13%">

6-123​

</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="2%"></TD><TD width="72%">Int. Returns - Yards</TD><TD width="13%">

2-51​

</TD><TD width="13%">

0-0​

</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="74%" colSpan=2>PENALTIES-YARDS</TD><TD width="13%">

8-84​

</TD><TD width="13%">

7-53​

</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="74%" colSpan=2>FUMBLES-LOST</TD><TD width="13%">

1-0​

</TD><TD width="13%">

5-4​

</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="74%" colSpan=2>TIME OF POSSESSION </TD><TD width="13%">

36:35​

</TD><TD width="13%">

23:00​

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Heres the Box Score from the last time McNabb faced NE defense. 31-10 check out the Sack Stat. Save your money Philly backers...

 

[headguy]

undecided still on the game. but take your stat from last year and how many games ago and throw them out the window. this game will not even come close to being that type of game.

 

[TotalRecall]

You mean Philly will get more points than 10? Sure ,Im all for that. The total should be 56 so Iggles can have 21. NE positively WILL get 30+ points. They are going to use the same game plan that worked perfectly last time, so why would they change it? Hellooooo??? Blitz the sh*t out of McNabb and make him throw after they shut down- stopped your Philly running game cold. And Bruschi will be waiting out there... for the the dump pass that isnt thown fast enough, and do you think NE will give him 12 seconds to run around until he finds a way out? HAAAAAAA!!!! Also Dillon will get 100+ off you. He wasnt there for that 2003 box score. You think hes an improvement? It will be that type of game because Romeo Crennel knows the secret to stopping McNabb from hurting you... Trust me. Ive watched NE for 30 years and this years version is the best I havel ever seen..... Please dont go over to the stupid side and throw your money away betting Philly. Guys talking about betting the money line. Now that is a degenerate gambler. Jeeeez what idiots! Ahh yes ignorance is bliss until reality hits- like Rodney Harrison...

 

[Dude]

N.E wont score over 17

Since 2000, Jim Johnson's defense has allowed an average of 15.6 points a game. That's a mile and a half ahead of anyone else in the NFL. In 11 playoff games, that defense has permitted only 13 touchdowns.